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www.ecommerce-guide.com/news/news/article.php/772261
By Don Sussis May 23, 2001 Mad cow disease in humans usually has a 16-month progression: tremors, an unsteady gait, followed by slurred speech, joyless laughter, and finally stupor and death. The technology sector has now had a year of Mad Stock Disease-and investors, while not dead are in a stupor. Is recovery on the way?
Strange Market Behavior
Which begs the question: Is it time to invest in Tech, again? Back to the tape. The Nasdaq dropped 25 percent in the Q1 (January - March) on top of the 39 percent it dropped last year. So, by the beginning of April, this index was down a maniacal 65 percent from the peak reached only one year ago. Obviously, feeling sick, investors have recently culled more of their mutual funds than they bought -- to the furious level of about three billion dollars. That's the worst redemption since 1998 when world financial markets seemed on the brink of burning due to contagious diseases in Asia, Russia and the geniuses at a massively leveraged hedge fund called Long Term Capital. In between there have been rallies. Last summer, for example, the Nasdaq gained almost 35 percent -- only to be sent back to bed. There have also been a number of dead cat bounces. These occur when the shorts cover. This causes upward price pressure that is not driven by fundamentals (such as earning growth). In the current market, downgrades are overwhelming upgrades by about 20 to one. Among recent downgrades are companies as diverse as PMC-Sierra, American Express, Vitesse Semiconductor, Proctor & Gamble and Coca Cola. Many analysts have different opinions about the same stocks. In recent days, Cisco and J.P. Morgan, for example, have been both upgraded and downgraded. This could be a dangerous bear trap for unsophisticated investors. Then again, it could be a buying opportunity. Professionals, such as Barton Biggs (Morgan Stanley), have been warning investors that current data do not yield not signs of recovery, but rather, provide indicators that sickness is spreading. Alan Abelson, writing in Barron's (April 2) put it this way: "True bear markets like the one we're in don't end with stocks still greatly overpriced and everyone on the alert for the turn. They end with valuations almost as depressed as those relatively few investors still standing." Complying with the new Fair Disclosure Rules I must note that Abelson is perpetually negative. He loves to rain on passing parades -- especially if they celebrate technology. So how do we make sense of the fact that from April 4 to May 1, the Nasdaq rallied 35.5 percent? Or, that the Internet Index on CNBC was up 62 percent during the same period? And in a gesture to the steak and cigar days of 1999, how is it that a newly minted stock named Simplex Solutions (a technology company which makes software for testing chips) rose 77 percent over its IPO price on the first day of trading on May 2? Also, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16 percent from March 22. The Standard & Poor's Index is up 15 percent since April 4. But the Nasdaq is still down 10 percent for the year and down 56 percent from the high last year on March 10. What's going on and how do we diagnose the patient? Some spin doctors seem insanely nostalgic for the bull run of last decade and don't want clients to miss the next stampede. Some professionals seem to be moving out of money market funds and going back into stocks. In fact, several major brokerages have increased their stock allocations. If the markets are a discounting mechanism then is it telling us that we've hit bottom and the worst is really over? Is all the bad news is already reflected in current stock prices? Is the time to buy? Or is the recent run up just a bull rally in a bear market-- and is there more pain ahead? |
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