Online Holiday Shopping Stats Scorecard By Laura Rush
November 22, 2002
Just how successful will holiday e-commerce be this year? Depends on whom you ask. The consensus is that the 2002 holiday e-commerce shopping season will be a success, especially in the U.S., as e-commerce is expected to rake in approximately US$13 billion by year's end. However, research firms generally use different methodologies and crunch different numbers, so a direct comparison between two or more research firms is not always possible. For example, some may include travel and ticket sales as part of holiday sales, while others do not. Some firms make predictions for specific countries, such as the U.S., while others may focus more broadly on Europe or North America, for example. (If it's helpful to know what exactly was being measured, then the methodologies used can usually be found on the firm's Web site.)
With that, here's a quick look at the forecasts for the upcoming 2002 holiday selling season, and where you can go to find more specific information.
In its research report Unlocking Holiday Revenues, Jupiter Research said it is forecasting U.S. online holiday sales of US$13.1 billion for November and December, up about 17 percent from last year. The New York City-based online research outfit, drawing on data from its annual holiday consumer and executive surveys, said that its holiday spending figure is equivalent to about 32 percent of all online sales for the year, and that despite the shorter holiday shopping season in 2002.
According a Jupiter Research report issued earlier this month, European Holiday Shopping 2002, European consumers will spend €4.5 billion shopping online (not including travel) between November and December 2002. This figure represents 33 percent of total online commerce spending in 2002, and reflects a 55 percent increase over 2001 online holiday spending (€2.9 billion). Fueling this growth is not just the increase in online users in Europe over the past year, but the rise in Europeans who actually buy online.
eMarketer has recently released its 4th annual "US Online Holiday Shopping Report," which provides an update of the leading trends in e-business and online retailing in the U.S. and also looks at the growing world market. Currently, eMarketer is estimating that online retail sales for the fourth quarter will grow to US$12.9 billion in the United States, an increase of some 16 percent over the fourth quarter of 2001.
Gartner is forecasting that Europeans will spend an estimated US$15.77 billion over the holiday season, topping North American shoppers who are expected to shell out an estimated $15.66 billion.
Worldwide online holiday sales in 2002 are projected to total US$38.2 billion, a 48.4 percent increase from the same period last year. Figures exclude travel-related purchases and movie and event ticket sales.
The research unit predicts that the Asia/Pacific area will be third in holiday sales with US$3.32 billion; followed by Japan (broken out separately) at US$1.93 billion, with "every place else" coming in at US$1.52 billion.
U.S. consumers planning to buy gifts over the Internet expect to spend an average of US$235 for online shopping this holiday season, according to a recent survey. Online spending by those consumers will account for more than a quarter of the total $800 they plan to spend on gifts.
In September 2002, GartnerG2 surveyed 1,317 adults in the United States by telephone to gauge their spending intentions this holiday season. According to the survey, 98 percent of consumers who bought holiday gifts online in 2001 plan to do so in 2002.
While 4 million more households will shop online this holiday season compared with 2001, the overall spending per person will be less than last year -- US$433 versus US$463.
The research firm is also forecasting that during the 27-day shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, online retail will hit US$9.5 billion.
According to the analysts at comScore, based on the increased momentum in the early weeks of October, the industry is poised to meet - and potentially exceed - comScore's fourth quarter non-travel expectation of US$13.8 billion.
On the heels of a healthy third quarter for U.S. e-commerce, which according to BizRate.com's statistics clocked in $10 billion in online retail sales (a 37 percent jump over last year's numbers), expectations are high for the approaching holiday shopping season. So high, in fact, that BizRate.com is predicting online sales over the holiday season to peak at US$8 billion, a 24 percent increase over last year, bringing in $16.9 billion for the entire fourth quarter, which marks a 35 percent increase.
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