Just how big is the online marketplace getting? Well, one new study predicts e-commerce in the United States will surpass a major milestone in 2006. Leadpile.com, a centralized online lead marketplace, says 2006 United States E-Commerce sales will top $100 Billion in a report released this week. This follows a report issued last month by JupiterResearch that predicts online retail sales are expected to grow from $81 Billion in 2005 to $144 Billion in 2010. (JupiterResearch and this Web site are owned by the same parent company)
Last year, Leadpile predicted online sales would hit $1 Trillion by 2012 — which at this point appears to be extremely unlikely given current and past trends.
The company says "'Super Kids in Digital Space' are going to dramatically change the landscape of the entire United States culture, including the way we use the Internet and Computers. Leadpile believes that this new, young, super Internet and wireless consumer, will drive wireless technology, online sales, and our entire culture to levels very few people have even dreamed possible, resulting in a dramatic shift in our lives, and change the way we buy and consume goods and services forever."
Andy Jacob, CEO of Leadpile.com said in a written statement, "While many experts are now starting to believe that our 'One Trillion Dollar E-Commerce Prediction' can, and will, happen by 2012, we do not see explosive growth this year. While it is our forecast that e-commerce sales have the potential to make up 25-30 percent of all sales in the United States by 2012, the growth will come in steady spurts and not all at one time. As the convergence of the aging baby boom population and the 'SKIDS' happen, this steady growth will see episodes of explosiveness in the next seven years.
"This year, however, we see $100 Billion in e-commerce as an easily justifiable number, which would be a modest 16 percent increase over 2004's $86.3 Billion in e-commerce sales," added Jacob.
What will be hard to justify, however, is the astronomical growth prediction in e-commerce the company claims will happen by 2012. Sales volume will need to grow ten-fold in six years for that prediction to come true.
"Everyone seems to be talking about 'baby boomers,' he adds. "Leadpile believes that the biggest impact on our world and our culture will come from the 'SKIDS,' who will help change the entire way we currently think about the Internet, wireless devices, and our future."
JupiterResearch's Patti Freeman Evans, author of "U.S. Online Retail Forecast, 2005 to 2010," told ECommerce Guide, "Our projections are as follows — 2006 $95 billion, so not that far off from their $100 billion mark. We don't project out as far as 2012 but by 2010 we project $144 billion, not nearly close to the trillion dollars they project just two years later. Our compounded annual growth rate is 12 percent through 2010. We include the continued adoption of all age groups including the 'SKIDS,' as they refer to kids, in our projections and feel confident that our numbers are conservative but accurate."
Devin Comiskey is the Managing Editor of ECommerce-Guide.
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